Military History and Strategy

How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires? – Si Sheppard

Oct 1, 2026 · 1:37:24

Dwarkesh Patel interviews historian Si Sheppard on how a few hundred conquistadors under Cortés and Pizarro toppled the Aztec and Inca empires of millions in just years. Sheppard credits steel, horses, and diplomacy: Cortés captured Moctezuma, while Pizarro's 168 men ambushed Atahualpa at Cajamarca, killing thousands for zero losses. Up to 99% of their forces were native allies like the Tlaxcalans seeking escape from Aztec hegemony. He argues the conquests were contingent yet smallpox doomed the empires long-term, and the too-short learning curve blocked adaptation to cavalry. He also explains why dispersed peoples like the Maya and Comanche resisted longer, how silver fueled European inflation and Ming trade, and Spain's stagnation — Patel's analogy being AI takeover.

Sarah Paine — Why wars are so difficult to end

Sep 25, 2026 · 52:40

Sarah Paine explains why wars are easy to start, hard to end, and hardest to end on the terms you wanted, using the Russo-Japanese War as her model. Japan beat a far larger Russia by keeping limited objectives, securing Theodore Roosevelt as mediator, and stopping at its culminating point of victory. The Gulf War shows limited aims done cheaply—34 allies paid over $50 billion of US costs—while Korea's shifting aims twice exceeded the culminating point of victory. Paine traces how regional wars go global—the American Revolution, World War I, Japan's road to Pearl Harbor—and why defeated powers wage insurgencies to deny victory, as in Vietnam and Iraq. She closes with Clausewitz's limited versus unlimited objectives, Sun Tzu's death ground, and the questions to ask before any war.