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How did a few hundred Spanish soldiers topple two empires? – Si Sheppard

Oct 1, 2026 · 1:37:24

Dwarkesh Patel interviews historian Si Sheppard on how a few hundred conquistadors under Cortés and Pizarro toppled the Aztec and Inca empires of millions in just years. Sheppard credits steel, horses, and diplomacy: Cortés captured Moctezuma, while Pizarro's 168 men ambushed Atahualpa at Cajamarca, killing thousands for zero losses. Up to 99% of their forces were native allies like the Tlaxcalans seeking escape from Aztec hegemony. He argues the conquests were contingent yet smallpox doomed the empires long-term, and the too-short learning curve blocked adaptation to cavalry. He also explains why dispersed peoples like the Maya and Comanche resisted longer, how silver fueled European inflation and Ming trade, and Spain's stagnation — Patel's analogy being AI takeover.

AI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement

Sep 11, 2026 · 1:37:01

Dwarkesh Patel hosts John Schulman (Thinking Machines), Beren Millidge (Zyphra), and Charlie O'Neill (Baseten) to debate how close recursive self-improvement is. They argue the main risk to superintelligence by 2036 is a persistent sim-to-real gap: models ace benchmarks but cannot set their own objectives for paradigm-shifting research. Schulman says defining the objective—alignment—will be humans' longest-lasting job, and distillation from frontier models fights lab centralization. Millidge credits RL's success to high-signal bits atop strong mid-training and warns continual learning fails via catastrophic forgetting. Timelines: a drop-in remote worker in one to three years, Schulman gives a 10x AI-researcher uplift in two and AI dominating all computer work in three to four.